Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2380 CMH 07:13 → DFW 09:01 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1492 CMH 16:58 → DFW 18:49 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2380 American Flight history →	CMH 07:13	DFW 09:01	10%	4%	0.9%	89%
AA 2987 American	CMH 07:56	DFW 09:33	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1279 American Flight history →	CMH 11:46	DFW 13:25	13%	4%	1.0%	80%
AA 1492 American Flight history →	CMH 16:58	DFW 18:49	19%	6%	1.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON