Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 3458 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 3458 CMH 06:40 → EWR 08:33 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2065 CMH 16:34 → EWR 18:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3458 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:40	EWR 08:33	2%	1%	0.7%	90%
UA 3457 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:06	EWR 10:10	3%	1%	0.7%	90%
YX 3528 Republic	CMH 09:07	EWR 11:04	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 3480 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 11:35	EWR 13:28	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 3596 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:37	EWR 15:30	11%	2%	0.7%	77%
UA 2065 United	CMH 16:34	EWR 18:30	20%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON