tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4674 Southwest CMH 07:17 LAS 08:35 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1495 Southwest CMH 17:21 LAS 18:30 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:31UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 33m Dulles IAD 09:04 → LAS 11:12UA 1323 8h 13m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:30 → IAH 08:16UA 2205 3h 39m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 43m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → CMH 09:00 → DEN 10:14UA 728 3h 18m Denver DEN 13:32 → LAS 14:41UA 493 8h 41m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 57m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39AA 3206 3h 03m Charlotte CLT 10:42 → LAS 12:29AA 2470 9h 20m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 6h 32m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:11 → ATL 09:45DL 3165 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659 9h 38m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CMH 08:29 → ORD 09:10AA 3572 · flown by Envoy 55m Chicago ORD 10:05 → LAS 12:05AA 1497 6h 36m 73% 54%
UnitedDetails → CMH 13:37 → EWR 15:30UA 3596 · flown by Republic 53m Newark EWR 16:23 → LAS 18:39UA 1539 8h 02m 68% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON