Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3560 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3560 CMH 06:27 → MCO 08:33 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1612 CMH 21:13 → MCO 23:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3560 Southwest	CMH 06:27	MCO 08:33	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2438 Southwest	CMH 15:31	MCO 17:44	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
F9 1612 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 21:13	MCO 23:40	15%	7%	1.4%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON