Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 3524 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 3524 CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1182 CMH 17:57 → ORD 18:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3524 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:30	ORD 06:09	2%	2%	0.6%	94%
YX 4563 Republic	CMH 05:35	ORD 05:47	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 622 United Flight history →	CMH 11:03	ORD 11:39	6%	3%	0.6%	89%
YX 3716 Republic	CMH 12:33	ORD 13:04	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:32	ORD 06:51	7%	2%	0.6%	78%
YX 3306 Republic	CMH 09:48	ORD 10:00	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 466 United Flight history →	CMH 09:00	ORD 09:36	8%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 10:31	ORD 11:06	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 3572 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 08:29	ORD 09:10	9%	3%	0.6%	76%
MQ 3815 Envoy	CMH 15:21	ORD 16:01	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3465 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 16:31	ORD 17:04	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
UA 2653 United	CMH 08:47	ORD 09:10	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 6347 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 13:17	ORD 13:50	11%	5%	0.7%	47%
OO 4742 SkyWest	CMH 19:50	ORD 20:16	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1293 United	CMH 14:26	ORD 14:40	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1182 United Flight history →	CMH 17:57	ORD 18:30	19%	5%	0.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON