Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 2–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4239 CMH 05:49 → PHX 06:55 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1958 CMH 07:20 → PHX 08:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4239 Southwest	CMH 05:49	PHX 06:55	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1071 Southwest	CMH 13:08	PHX 14:26	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1958 American Flight history →	CMH 07:20	PHX 08:30	10%	3%	0.7%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON