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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 2h 37m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 51m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 12m Detroit DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:26DL 761 9h 11m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 14:00 → MSP 15:07DL 2550 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:35DL 2145 9h 35m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → CMH 11:03 → ORD 11:39UA 622 2h 03m Chicago ORD 13:42 → SAN 16:00UA 559 7h 57m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SAN 11:43DL 843 8h 43m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 03m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 12:48 → ATL 14:26DL 1522 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:41DL 712 9h 53m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:31UA 3430 · flown by Republic 55m Dulles IAD 08:26 → SAN 10:49UA 1930 7h 50m 96% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON