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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1597 United Flight history → CMH 07:00 SFO 09:06 9% 3% 0.6% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 21m Chicago ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 7h 49m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa 2h 57m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 08m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 8h 55m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:31UA 3430 · flown by Republic 2h 18m Dulles IAD 09:49 → SFO 12:38UA 1773 9h 39m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 19m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic 2h 15m New York JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363 10h 30m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:45 → PHL 07:29AA 2867 59m Philadelphia PHL 08:28 → SFO 11:29AA 1524 8h 44m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic 1h 51m Boston BOS 10:11 → SFO 13:45DL 860 10h 32m 99% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa 46m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 7h 57m 61% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON