tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4203 Southwest CMH 06:57 STL 07:25 2% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 1656 Southwest CMH 19:25 STL 19:54 9% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:45 → PHL 07:29AA 2867 1h 34m Philadelphia PHL 09:03 → STL 10:42AA 1739 5h 57m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 06m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 5h 50m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 43m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 1h 00m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 3h 51m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 12m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 6h 57m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:40 → EWR 08:33UA 3458 · flown by Republic 1h 21m Newark EWR 09:54 → STL 11:30UA 2311 5h 50m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 19:17 → ATL 21:01DL 2786 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 5h 36m 97% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON