tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3019 Southwest CMH 07:54 TPA 10:11 6% 2% 1.2% no record
WN 2261 Southwest CMH 16:08 TPA 18:30 15% 5% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 22m Chicago ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24UA 2326 5h 54m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 07m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → CMH 09:00 → ORD 09:36UA 466 1h 43m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 6h 12m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:31UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 29m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 33m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → CMH 08:06 → EWR 10:10UA 3457 · flown by Republic 1h 50m Newark EWR 12:00 → TPA 15:06UA 601 7h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 5h 35m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → CMH 06:04 → DCA 07:35AA 3861 · flown by Envoy 2h 37m Washington DCA 10:12 → TPA 12:50AA 3126 6h 46m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 24m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON