Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5291 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day UA 5291 COS 06:00 → DEN 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OO 4739 COS 07:39 → DEN 08:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5291 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 06:00	DEN 07:05	3%	2%	0.6%	89%
OO 4656 SkyWest	COS 05:44	DEN 06:53	4%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1192 Southwest	COS 07:16	DEN 08:01	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 5400 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 10:23	DEN 11:38	8%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 4696 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 07:05	DEN 08:10	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 4675 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 11:31	DEN 12:45	10%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 5634 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 09:20	DEN 10:33	11%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 1265 Southwest	COS 13:19	DEN 14:04	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1194 Southwest	COS 16:19	DEN 17:04	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4691 SkyWest	COS 08:51	DEN 10:06	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4690 SkyWest	COS 14:55	DEN 15:46	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 4719 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 17:07	DEN 18:20	13%	5%	0.6%	68%
UA 5391 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 18:32	DEN 19:45	13%	4%	0.7%	72%
UA 1610 United	COS 13:29	DEN 14:36	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4739 SkyWest	COS 07:39	DEN 08:30	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON