Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OO 6221 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day OO 6221 COS 05:50 → DFW 08:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1170 COS 16:10 → DFW 19:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6221 SkyWest	COS 05:50	DFW 08:56	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 782 American Flight history →	COS 08:01	DFW 10:56	12%	5%	1.1%	92%
OO 6197 SkyWest	COS 13:26	DFW 16:26	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 1552 American Flight history →	COS 10:19	DFW 13:13	22%	6%	0.9%	71%
AA 1170 American Flight history →	COS 16:10	DFW 19:14	25%	7%	1.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON