Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 5857 at 09:14, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5857 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COU 09:14	DEN 10:35	8%	8%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	COU 06:20 → ORD 08:01AA 3655 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Chicago	ORD 09:47 → DEN 11:45AA 2363	6h 25m	97%	88%
American Details →	COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50AA 3525 · flown by Envoy	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	5h 51m	97%	81%
American Details →	COU 12:06 → DFW 13:53AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → DEN 17:19AA 1322	6h 13m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON