tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2441 at 13:07, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2441 Southwest CVG 13:07 AUS 14:39 7% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record CVG 08:10 AUS 09:50 10% 7% 0.9% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 6h 29m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 16m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 39m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 6h 45m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 7h 41m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 1h 27m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 5h 59m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 1h 16m Newark EWR 09:23 → AUS 12:05UA 1238 7h 05m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → AUS 17:15DL 2687 7h 15m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON