tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1209 Southwest CVG 07:01 BNA 07:12 5% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 1446 Southwest CVG 17:34 BNA 17:45 14% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 4h 07m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 21m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 6h 27m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 13:32 → BNA 15:39DL 8949 5h 39m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 14:26 → BNA 14:39DL 790 5h 34m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 20:24 → BNA 20:38DL 3002 5h 22m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → CVG 08:18 → CLT 09:55AA 429 2h 04m Charlotte CLT 11:59 → BNA 12:28AA 2409 5h 10m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32AA 3157 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:02 → BNA 12:06AA 1396 7h 06m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CVG 12:35 → DCA 14:07DL 5221 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m Washington DCA 15:10 → BNA 16:15DL 5777 · flown by Republic 4h 40m 65% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON