tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 2915 at 07:16, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2915 Delta Flight history → CVG 07:16 LAS 08:16 7% 2% 0.7% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777 6h 57m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 22m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:04 → IAH 08:27UA 2442 3h 28m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 09m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659 9h 34m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 53m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02UA 1666 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 7h 49m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → LAS 22:35DL 825 9h 19m 100% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON