Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3638 at 06:30, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3638 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:30	MIA 09:08	8%	3%	0.9%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 23m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → MIA 13:39DL 793	7h 30m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	1h 46m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 09m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 53m	99%	87%
American Details →	CVG 06:02 → DCA 07:50AA 5445 · flown by PSA	2h 14m Washington	DCA 10:04 → MIA 13:03AA 401	7h 01m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	7h 18m	100%	83%
United Details →	CVG 07:04 → IAH 08:27UA 2442	3h 33m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	8h 43m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 07m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON