Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1379 at 05:19 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1379 CVG 05:19 → ORD 05:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4749 CVG 16:08 → ORD 16:33 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1379 United	CVG 05:19	ORD 05:56	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3690 Republic	CVG 09:04	ORD 09:46	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4094 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:00	ORD 06:32	6%	2%	0.7%	82%
YX 4460 Republic	CVG 14:14	ORD 14:49	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3935 Envoy	CVG 10:37	ORD 11:11	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1738 United	CVG 10:54	ORD 11:20	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2752 United Flight history →	CVG 07:00	ORD 07:34	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 19:21	ORD 19:56	10%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 3426 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 13:12	ORD 13:41	10%	3%	0.7%	67%
OO 5540 SkyWest	CVG 12:03	ORD 12:31	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2755 American	CVG 07:41	ORD 08:03	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 4735 SkyWest	CVG 14:34	ORD 15:05	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 5595 SkyWest	CVG 18:14	ORD 18:45	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 4749 SkyWest	CVG 16:08	ORD 16:33	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 4177 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 19:54	ORD 20:34	22%	0%	12.9%	78%
UA 4171 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 16:12	ORD 16:52	23%	14%	5.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON