tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3091 American CVG 15:07 PHX 16:13 14% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:55 → DTW 09:12DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor 3h 35m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 8h 55m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 34m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 8h 09m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 27m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 8h 00m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 03m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32AA 3157 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:53AA 2315 7h 53m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 38m Chicago ORD 11:12 → PHX 13:05UA 2164 9h 05m 100% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON