Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 966 CVG 06:40 → SEA 08:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 451 CVG 18:38 → SEA 20:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 966 Delta Flight history →	CVG 06:40	SEA 08:34	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 324 Delta	CVG 00:13	SEA 01:52	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 384 Delta	CVG 11:46	SEA 13:44	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 451 Alaska	CVG 18:38	SEA 20:20	16%	3%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02UA 1666	49m Denver	DEN 09:51 → SEA 11:51UA 1253	6h 51m	90%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON