tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1679 Delta Flight history → CVG 15:20 TPA 17:29 12% 4% 1.2% 83%
F9 1668 Frontier Flight history → CVG 08:51 TPA 11:15 13% 3% 1.0% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 33m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 45m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 12m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 20m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 5h 58m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 5h 30m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:08DL 2264 7h 59m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 1h 17m Newark EWR 09:24 → TPA 12:25UA 1415 6h 25m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 6h 41m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON