Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 516 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 516 DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4990 DAL 18:09 → ATL 21:16 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 516 Delta Flight history →	DAL 06:05	ATL 09:17	4%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 4382 Southwest	DAL 07:46	ATL 11:05	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	DAL 12:00	ATL 15:12	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
WN 1315 Southwest	DAL 19:51	ATL 23:12	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	DAL 18:39	ATL 22:00	14%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	DAL 15:59	ATL 19:14	15%	5%	0.7%	72%
WN 1278 Southwest	DAL 12:29	ATL 15:48	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4990 Southwest	DAL 18:09	ATL 21:16	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON