Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4186 DAL 07:49 → AUS 08:52 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1243 DAL 21:48 → AUS 22:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4186 Southwest	DAL 07:49	AUS 08:52	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1240 Southwest	DAL 08:42	AUS 09:46	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1462 Southwest	DAL 12:02	AUS 13:06	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2524 Southwest	DAL 16:00	AUS 17:14	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3333 Southwest	DAL 13:01	AUS 14:03	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 197 Southwest	DAL 21:31	AUS 22:36	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1243 Southwest	DAL 21:48	AUS 22:52	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON