Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4256 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 4256 DAL 06:43 → BWI 10:51 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1260 DAL 16:23 → BWI 20:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4256 Southwest	DAL 06:43	BWI 10:51	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4677 Southwest	DAL 08:29	BWI 12:35	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4031 Southwest	DAL 11:39	BWI 15:46	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4037 Southwest	DAL 14:53	BWI 19:00	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 418 Southwest	DAL 13:41	BWI 17:44	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1260 Southwest	DAL 16:23	BWI 20:30	17%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON