Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1269 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1269 DAL 07:06 → DEN 08:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1272 DAL 16:51 → DEN 17:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1269 Southwest	DAL 07:06	DEN 08:09	10%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 199 Southwest	DAL 11:25	DEN 12:28	17%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2159 Southwest	DAL 19:37	DEN 20:33	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1148 Southwest	DAL 13:58	DEN 14:57	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1271 Southwest	DAL 15:42	DEN 16:45	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1272 Southwest	DAL 16:51	DEN 17:51	25%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON