Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4531 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4531 DAL 09:04 → ELP 09:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1279 DAL 20:34 → ELP 21:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4531 Southwest	DAL 09:04	ELP 09:52	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4039 Southwest	DAL 13:26	ELP 14:14	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1100 Southwest	DAL 17:11	ELP 18:00	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2025 Southwest	DAL 14:42	ELP 15:30	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1279 Southwest	DAL 20:34	ELP 21:22	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON