Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4538 at 15:54, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4538 Southwest	DAL 15:54	FLL 19:37	18%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	5h 18m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → HOU 09:45WN 7	2h 29m Houston	HOU 12:14 → FLL 15:41WN 1670	6h 11m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:00 → HOU 15:15WN 31	3h 01m Houston	HOU 18:16 → FLL 21:43WN 4230	6h 43m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	7h 40m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:00 → ATL 15:12DL 441	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670	6h 43m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON