Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 51 DAL 19:07 → HOU 20:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	HOU 07:10	2%	1%	0.8%	93%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	HOU 09:45	3%	1%	0.8%	84%
WN 1 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:00	HOU 08:10	3%	1%	0.9%	92%
WN 11 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:30	HOU 10:45	5%	2%	0.8%	89%
WN 17 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:00	HOU 12:15	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
WN 25 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:30	HOU 13:45	7%	2%	0.8%	79%
WN 31 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:00	HOU 15:15	9%	3%	0.8%	80%
WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:30	HOU 18:50	11%	3%	0.8%	60%
WN 57 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:26	HOU 21:40	12%	3%	0.8%	72%
WN 41 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	HOU 17:45	12%	3%	0.8%	68%
WN 51 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:07	HOU 20:22	12%	4%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON