Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	6h 56m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:00 → ATL 15:12DL 441	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	6h 54m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON