Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1300 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1300 DAL 06:33 → LGA 10:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1304 DAL 16:01 → LGA 20:34 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1300 Southwest	DAL 06:33	LGA 10:58	8%	2%	1.7%	no record
WN 1301 Southwest	DAL 09:34	LGA 14:06	25%	8%	1.8%	no record
WN 1281 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:44	LGA 16:17	29%	11%	1.3%	62%
WN 9004 Southwest	DAL 18:01	LGA 22:37	35%	12%	1.3%	no record
WN 1305 Southwest	DAL 18:08	LGA 22:39	36%	12%	1.3%	no record
WN 1304 Southwest	DAL 16:01	LGA 20:34	40%	15%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON