Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1318 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1318 DAL 06:18 → MCO 09:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 345 DAL 16:28 → MCO 20:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1318 Southwest	DAL 06:18	MCO 09:53	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 827 Southwest	DAL 09:00	MCO 12:33	7%	2%	2.1%	no record
WN 685 Southwest	DAL 10:16	MCO 13:48	9%	2%	2.1%	no record
WN 1323 Southwest	DAL 19:09	MCO 22:41	19%	6%	2.3%	no record
WN 1319 Southwest	DAL 13:01	MCO 16:34	19%	5%	3.6%	no record
WN 345 Southwest	DAL 16:28	MCO 20:00	19%	5%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON