Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 130 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 130 DAL 06:01 → MDW 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1327 DAL 17:01 → MDW 19:18 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 130 Southwest	DAL 06:01	MDW 08:10	5%	1%	1.4%	no record
WN 1324 Southwest	DAL 08:13	MDW 10:32	6%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 694 Southwest	DAL 09:46	MDW 12:05	8%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 1326 Southwest	DAL 14:21	MDW 16:42	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3613 Southwest	DAL 13:15	MDW 15:33	17%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 370 Southwest	DAL 18:36	MDW 20:56	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1327 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:01	MDW 19:18	21%	4%	0.7%	91%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON