Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1207 at 16:29, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1207 Southwest	DAL 16:29	MEM 18:01	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → HOU 09:45WN 7	2h 31m Houston	HOU 12:16 → MEM 13:54WN 1556	5h 24m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:00 → HOU 12:15WN 17	3h 53m Houston	HOU 16:08 → MEM 17:46WN 596	6h 46m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:00 → HOU 15:15WN 31	3h 05m Houston	HOU 18:20 → MEM 19:58WN 1970	5h 58m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501	7h 25m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:00 → ATL 15:12DL 441	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681	5h 09m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:01 → MDW 19:18WN 1327	1h 23m Chicago	MDW 20:41 → MEM 22:18WN 4975	5h 17m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON