Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 654 at 13:34, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 654 Southwest	DAL 13:34	MKE 16:03	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	7h 45m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	7h 57m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:01 → MDW 19:18WN 1327	1h 26m Chicago	MDW 20:44 → MKE 21:39WN 104	4h 38m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON