Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4216 at 10:51 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day


WN 4216 Southwest	DAL 10:51	OKC 11:59	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4199 Southwest	DAL 20:29	OKC 21:31	15%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	2h 17m Houston	HOU 09:27 → OKC 10:57WN 3589	4h 57m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:04 → OKC 12:11DL 2020	6h 06m	98%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:00 → HOU 12:15WN 17	2h 21m Houston	HOU 14:36 → OKC 16:05WN 2169	5h 05m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:30 → HOU 17:45WN 41	3h 19m Houston	HOU 21:04 → OKC 22:32WN 3830	6h 02m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:01 → MDW 19:18WN 1327	58m Chicago	MDW 20:16 → OKC 22:22WN 4866	5h 21m	83%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON