Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1345 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1345 DAL 07:31 → PHX 08:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1123 DAL 19:57 → PHX 20:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1345 Southwest	DAL 07:31	PHX 08:07	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1348 Southwest	DAL 09:02	PHX 09:38	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 860 Southwest	DAL 11:51	PHX 12:28	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 139 Southwest	DAL 16:16	PHX 16:53	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2794 Southwest	DAL 20:17	PHX 21:00	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1123 Southwest	DAL 19:57	PHX 20:34	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON