Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 709 DAL 07:40 → SAT 08:51 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1361 DAL 20:22 → SAT 21:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 709 Southwest	DAL 07:40	SAT 08:51	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1513 Southwest	DAL 08:57	SAT 10:08	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2539 Southwest	DAL 11:50	SAT 13:02	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 754 Southwest	DAL 15:39	SAT 16:51	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 787 Southwest	DAL 13:35	SAT 14:47	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 174 Southwest	DAL 19:25	SAT 20:37	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 966 Southwest	DAL 16:49	SAT 18:01	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1361 Southwest	DAL 20:22	SAT 21:33	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON