Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 519 at 08:57, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 519 Southwest	DAL 08:57	SEA 11:02	11%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 45m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	2h 24m Houston	HOU 09:34 → SEA 12:05WN 2690	8h 05m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	10h 00m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:00 → ATL 15:12DL 441	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	9h 05m	96%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:01 → MDW 19:18WN 1327	1h 51m Chicago	MDW 21:09 → SEA 23:32WN 2827	8h 31m	92%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON