Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4939 Southwest	DAL 10:29	TUL 11:37	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 9002 Southwest	DAL 16:49	TUL 18:04	9%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	5h 51m	98%	91%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:00 → HOU 12:15WN 17	2h 25m Houston	HOU 14:40 → TUL 16:13WN 2029	5h 13m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:00 → ATL 15:12DL 441	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	6h 04m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON