Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 790 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 790 DFW 07:29 → SFO 09:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1430 DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 790 United Flight history →	DFW 07:29	SFO 09:29	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 2046 American Flight history →	DFW 09:04	SJC 10:56	10%	3%	0.8%	77%
WN 4671 Southwest	DAL 12:04	SJC 13:37	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1949 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SFO 08:53	12%	5%	1.1%	78%
WN 4542 Southwest	DAL 09:14	SFO 10:46	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 447 Southwest	DAL 12:34	OAK 14:30	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2834 American Flight history →	DFW 12:04	SJC 13:54	13%	4%	0.7%	75%
AA 2309 American	DFW 08:22	SFO 10:23	14%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 21:09	SJC 23:34	19%	5%	0.8%	66%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	DFW 11:24	SFO 13:06	22%	7%	1.0%	57%
UA 2413 United Flight history →	DFW 15:23	SFO 17:14	23%	8%	0.6%	50%
AA 2325 American Flight history →	DFW 13:19	SFO 15:12	25%	7%	1.0%	81%
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SFO 22:59	27%	10%	2.2%	55%
AA 2333 American	DFW 17:32	SFO 19:28	28%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2330 United Flight history →	DFW 19:48	SFO 21:38	29%	9%	0.6%	71%
AA 2810 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	SFO 17:59	30%	9%	1.0%	43%
AA 2522 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	SFO 23:09	30%	6%	1.2%	26%
AA 1430 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SFO 21:10	34%	9%	1.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON