Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 130 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 130 DAL 06:01 → MDW 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2656 DFW 18:15 → ORD 20:47 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 130 Southwest	DAL 06:01	MDW 08:10	5%	1%	1.4%	no record
WN 1324 Southwest	DAL 08:13	MDW 10:32	6%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 694 Southwest	DAL 09:46	MDW 12:05	8%	1%	1.1%	no record
AA 2999 American Flight history →	DFW 05:47	ORD 08:15	11%	4%	1.6%	76%
AA 1938 American Flight history →	DFW 04:45	ORD 07:07	12%	4%	1.6%	90%
AA 328 American Flight history →	DFW 08:24	ORD 10:58	14%	5%	1.2%	85%
UA 1695 United Flight history →	DFW 07:08	ORD 09:50	15%	4%	1.1%	82%
WN 1326 Southwest	DAL 14:21	MDW 16:42	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3613 Southwest	DAL 13:15	MDW 15:33	17%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 370 Southwest	DAL 18:36	MDW 20:56	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1401 United Flight history →	DFW 12:00	ORD 14:42	18%	9%	0.9%	74%
AA 1858 American	DFW 07:17	ORD 09:45	18%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1634 United Flight history →	DFW 10:35	ORD 13:05	20%	9%	1.0%	83%
AA 1620 American Flight history →	DFW 21:31	ORD 23:56	20%	7%	1.5%	56%
WN 1327 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:01	MDW 19:18	21%	4%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
AA 1251 American	DFW 10:18	ORD 12:50	21%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 2346 American Flight history →	DFW 21:00	ORD 23:39	21%	8%	1.5%	63%
AA 1285 American Flight history →	DFW 11:32	ORD 14:03	22%	9%	1.3%	72%
AA 3790 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:37	ORD 22:12	23%	8%	2.7%	66%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	24%	9%	1.6%	66%
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	24%	11%	1.0%	68%
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 16:46	ORD 19:35	27%	11%	1.4%	69%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:57	28%	13%	1.0%	63%
F9 3242 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:43	ORD 19:22	29%	14%	1.8%	63%
UA 2275 United	DFW 17:53	ORD 20:23	31%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	31%	13%	1.0%	60%
AA 2257 American	DFW 17:30	ORD 19:55	31%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 3264 American	DFW 15:43	ORD 18:21	32%	13%	1.7%	no record
AA 2656 American	DFW 18:15	ORD 20:47	32%	11%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON