Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1628 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1392 DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	HOU 07:10	2%	1%	0.8%	93%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	HOU 09:45	3%	1%	0.8%	84%
WN 1 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:00	HOU 08:10	3%	1%	0.9%	92%
WN 11 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:30	HOU 10:45	5%	2%	0.8%	89%
UA 2260 United Flight history →	DFW 05:10	IAH 06:22	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 17 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:00	HOU 12:15	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
WN 25 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:30	HOU 13:45	7%	2%	0.8%	79%
WN 31 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:00	HOU 15:15	9%	3%	0.8%	80%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	9%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:33	HOU 08:53	9%	2%	0.9%	88%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:11	IAH 11:26	11%	2%	0.8%	97%
WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:30	HOU 18:50	11%	3%	0.8%	60%
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:46	IAH 11:03	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 57 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:26	HOU 21:40	12%	3%	0.8%	72%
WN 41 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	HOU 17:45	12%	3%	0.8%	68%
MQ 4015 Envoy	DFW 14:39	HOU 16:03	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 51 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:07	HOU 20:22	12%	4%	0.8%	66%
OO 6382 SkyWest	DFW 09:57	HOU 11:22	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 6186 SkyWest	DFW 12:21	HOU 13:46	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:54	IAH 08:06	13%	2%	0.8%	69%
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:40	HOU 20:08	14%	3%	1.2%	68%
MQ 4222 Envoy	DFW 16:50	HOU 18:19	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2114 United Flight history →	DFW 19:34	IAH 20:55	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	DFW 08:22	IAH 09:38	16%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 1397 American	DFW 12:07	IAH 13:28	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:24	IAH 18:46	18%	7%	0.6%	60%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:01	IAH 17:18	20%	5%	0.6%	67%
OH 5576 PSA	DFW 14:02	IAH 15:18	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5299 PSA	DFW 17:01	IAH 18:17	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1386 American	DFW 18:03	IAH 19:24	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	27%	7%	0.9%	48%
AA 1392 American Flight history →	DFW 18:36	IAH 19:54	28%	8%	1.1%	50%
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DFW 14:15	IAH 15:37	29%	17%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON