Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 41 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2215 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 2215 DFW 05:48 → EWR 10:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 610 DFW 16:54 → LGA 21:29 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2215 United	DFW 05:48	EWR 10:18	5%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 1300 Southwest	DAL 06:33	LGA 10:58	8%	2%	1.7%	no record
UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 07:21	EWR 11:59	8%	3%	1.0%	89%
DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	9%	3%	1.7%	90%
AA 2925 American Flight history →	DFW 05:54	LGA 10:19	11%	3%	1.9%	72%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 07:03	EWR 11:48	12%	4%	1.2%	81%
DL 551 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LGA 11:29	12%	3%	1.6%	86%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	15%	6%	1.2%	83%
UA 1268 United	DFW 09:13	EWR 13:45	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:40	LGA 12:13	19%	5%	2.5%	83%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LGA 13:00	21%	7%	2.3%	75%
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 17:39	JFK 22:22	22%	7%	0.9%	64%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	23%	7%	1.5%	75%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:35	LGA 15:10	23%	11%	1.4%	76%
AA 481 American Flight history →	DFW 18:31	JFK 23:11	25%	8%	0.9%	50%
WN 1301 Southwest	DAL 09:34	LGA 14:06	25%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:13	JFK 18:01	26%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	27%	11%	1.0%	57%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:59	LGA 23:33	29%	8%	2.1%	59%
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	29%	11%	1.1%	78%
UA 2461 United	DFW 16:58	EWR 21:35	29%	11%	0.9%	no record
WN 1281 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:44	LGA 16:17	29%	11%	1.3%	62%
AA 2922 American Flight history →	DFW 10:47	LGA 15:30	29%	11%	1.9%	69%
AA 2178 American	DFW 09:33	LGA 14:16	31%	10%	2.1%	no record
AA 1375 American	DFW 18:54	LGA 23:37	31%	9%	2.0%	no record
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:15	LGA 17:53	32%	12%	1.8%	64%
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 11:58	EWR 16:15	32%	11%	1.3%	69%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	32%	12%	1.5%	69%
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:08	EWR 22:46	33%	10%	1.6%	56%
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 12:28	LGA 17:13	34%	15%	2.0%	59%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	DFW 11:38	LGA 16:23	35%	13%	1.7%	38%
WN 9004 Southwest	DAL 18:01	LGA 22:37	35%	12%	1.3%	no record
WN 1305 Southwest	DAL 18:08	LGA 22:39	36%	12%	1.3%	no record
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	EWR 19:10	37%	14%	1.4%	56%
AA 2570 American Flight history →	DFW 17:57	LGA 22:40	37%	12%	2.0%	64%
AA 1806 American	DFW 14:00	LGA 18:42	38%	16%	2.1%	no record
WN 1304 Southwest	DAL 16:01	LGA 20:34	40%	15%	1.2%	no record
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:14	LGA 20:02	41%	19%	2.9%	61%
AA 2434 American	DFW 14:45	LGA 19:27	41%	16%	2.1%	no record
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	43%	15%	2.3%	56%
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 16:54	LGA 21:29	44%	15%	2.3%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON