Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4256 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4256 DAL 06:43 → BWI 10:51 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2595 DAL 16:58 → DCA 21:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4256 Southwest	DAL 06:43	BWI 10:51	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2175 Southwest	DAL 06:10	DCA 10:08	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4677 Southwest	DAL 08:29	BWI 12:35	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DFW 05:02	DCA 09:03	7%	2%	0.9%	88%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DFW 07:02	DCA 10:59	9%	3%	0.8%	86%
WN 4031 Southwest	DAL 11:39	BWI 15:46	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	DCA 12:42	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2399 American	DFW 09:38	DCA 13:34	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 4037 Southwest	DAL 14:53	BWI 19:00	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 1476 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:20	BWI 11:43	15%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:19	IAD 14:31	15%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 2669 American	DFW 10:53	BWI 15:13	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	16%	6%	0.9%	70%
WN 418 Southwest	DAL 13:41	BWI 17:44	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 597 Southwest	DAL 10:09	DCA 14:12	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1260 Southwest	DAL 16:23	BWI 20:30	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:29	17%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 2077 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	DCA 23:59	19%	6%	1.2%	64%
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 19:01	DCA 23:03	19%	6%	1.0%	65%
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	20%	6%	0.6%	79%
WN 1267 Southwest	DAL 20:48	DCA 00:37	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2254 American	DFW 16:09	IAD 20:16	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2520 American	DFW 14:55	DCA 19:15	20%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	21%	7%	1.0%	62%
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:31	IAD 15:47	21%	6%	0.9%	84%
WN 172 Southwest	DAL 14:01	DCA 18:03	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 17:07	BWI 21:25	24%	8%	0.8%	62%
WN 2595 Southwest	DAL 16:58	DCA 21:00	28%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON