Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 5261 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 5261 DAY 06:00 → DCA 07:39 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 5284 DAY 16:48 → DCA 18:35 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5261 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 06:00	DCA 07:39	13%	6%	1.8%	85%
AA 5108 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 09:47	DCA 11:31	19%	9%	2.0%	80%
OH 5407 PSA	DAY 13:10	DCA 14:54	27%	12%	2.2%	no record
AA 5284 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 16:48	DCA 18:35	28%	16%	2.4%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON