tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 1235 at 09:01, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1235 United Flight history → DAY 09:01 DEN 10:04 6% 2% 0.5% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Dayton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet 1h 10m Chicago ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 5h 15m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 05m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → DAY 06:09 → PHL 07:57AA 5229 · flown by PSA 1h 28m Philadelphia PHL 09:25 → DEN 11:32AA 1313 7h 23m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA 2h 56m Charlotte CLT 13:15 → DEN 14:51AA 696 8h 21m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:02 → DEN 16:28DL 493 7h 05m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DAY 15:56 → ATL 17:40DL 2763 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746 6h 47m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → DAY 10:23 → IAD 11:53UA 4181 · flown by GoJet 2h 42m Dulles IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 8h 06m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet 3h 14m Chicago ORD 11:09 → DEN 12:53UA 2857 7h 38m 94% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DAY 11:39 → ORD 12:05UA 4453 · flown by GoJet 53m Chicago ORD 12:58 → DEN 14:39UA 2809 5h 00m 74% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON