Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5157 DAY 07:09 → DFW 08:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5115 DAY 18:16 → DFW 19:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5157 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 07:09	DFW 08:50	7%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 5125 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 08:15	DFW 09:56	8%	4%	0.7%	84%
OH 5114 PSA	DAY 13:46	DFW 15:18	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5115 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 18:16	DFW 19:49	15%	5%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON