Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 5229 at 06:09, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5229 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 06:09	PHL 07:57	6%	5%	0.8%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 57m	98%	91%
United Details →	DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 09:27 → PHL 12:34UA 729	6h 54m	100%	91%
American Details →	DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498	6h 12m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 49m	100%	88%
American Details →	DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA	2h 43m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 20m	99%	87%
American Details →	DAY 12:55 → CLT 14:30AA 5385 · flown by PSA	3h 37m Charlotte	CLT 18:07 → PHL 20:06AA 423	7h 11m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DAY 15:56 → ATL 17:40DL 2763	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	5h 24m	96%	85%
United Details →	DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	7h 32m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON