Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 410 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 410 DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 850 DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 410 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	ATL 07:41	6%	2%	0.8%	95%
DL 824 Delta	DCA 06:57	ATL 08:53	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1294 Southwest	DCA 07:28	ATL 09:14	10%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2663 Southwest	DCA 11:58	ATL 13:51	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 455 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:00	ATL 10:50	12%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	DCA 20:50	ATL 23:00	13%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:06	ATL 13:13	13%	3%	0.9%	32%
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	DCA 10:16	ATL 12:06	13%	3%	0.9%	87%
MQ 3881 Envoy	DCA 08:36	ATL 10:48	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 2003 Delta	DCA 13:59	ATL 15:55	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 4682 Republic	DCA 20:21	ATL 22:27	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
YX 4576 Republic	DCA 14:08	ATL 16:18	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5675 PSA	DCA 06:18	ATL 08:12	14%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 343 Delta Flight history →	DCA 08:00	ATL 09:51	14%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 1007 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:35	ATL 21:31	16%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:27	ATL 14:15	17%	4%	0.8%	81%
WN 3033 Southwest	DCA 18:52	ATL 20:55	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:00	ATL 18:06	18%	5%	0.8%	73%
YX 4735 Republic	DCA 18:15	ATL 20:14	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:30	ATL 20:35	22%	5%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON