tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4057 at 16:35, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4057 Southwest DCA 16:35 AUS 18:48 16% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 25m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 7h 50m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 15m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 29m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:42 → ORD 08:52UA 441 2h 55m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 59m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 3h 45m New York JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323 9h 04m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 50m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 35m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 59m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 54m 98% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:10 → EWR 16:32UA 4560 · flown by GoJet 57m Newark EWR 17:29 → AUS 20:28UA 2213 6h 18m 62% 46%
UnitedDetails → DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet 48m Newark EWR 15:10 → AUS 18:11UA 2289 6h 11m 55% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON